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Why Simulation Needs to Consider Variability

Naturally variability and randomnes affect every real-world process, but how should their effects be included in simulations? This seminar raised awareness of the principles of probabilistic & stochastic FEA. Presentations were given from a range of methods that included random effects in simulations, as well as presenting its application as an emerging technology. All of this was presented in an easy to understand manner which focussed on practical application of the technology.

Throughout the seminar, presentations and case studies were shown demonstrating the value and worth in the technology and why every organisation should be utilising it. The seminar seeked to reduce any reservations about the technology and established how it can be universally applied to every problem.


The video podcasts from this meeting can be found at



Simulation in the Presence of Variability: Past, Present and Future Trends
Jacek Marczyk, ONTONIX S.r.l.


Identifying and Measuring Sources of Uncertainty
Louise Wright, National Physical Laboratory


Uncertainty Assessment of Aircraft Components by Simulation
Dietmar Vogt, EADS Innovation Works


Using Data Reduction Technologies for the Analysis of the Stochastic Behaviour of Crash Simulation Results
Clemens-August Thole, Fraunhofer Gesellschaft


Application of Robustness and Variability Analysis at Jaguar Land Rover
Richard Brown Jaguar Land Rover

Stochastic Analysis of the Herschel Telescope Cryo-Focus Problem
Dominic Doyle, European Space Agency


Quantifying and Managing Uncertainty with Gaussian Process Emulators
Tony O'Hagan, University of Sheffield

First in a Series of Similar Events ...

We are pleased to confirm that this is the first in a series of events on a similar subject and follow on events will include:-

Engineering Optimisation for Industrial Applications Seminar

To be held on 21st March 2012 at a venue to be confirmed in The Midlands the NAFEMS seminar on Engineering Optimisation for Industrial Applications aims to provide an overview of optimisation methods and techniques currently available, ranging from the classical approaches such as gradient and simplex methods through to more sophisticated, methods such genetic algorithms and response surface modelling.

Future Workshop

A workshop will follow in early July 2012, with the aim of describing and demonstrating the practical implementation of probabilistic & stochastic methods. Vendors will be available to deliver a ‘hands on’ demonstration of the simplicity of a stochastics simulation and its results.


Event Type: Seminar
Location: Teddington UK
Date: December 7, 2011


The National Physical Laboratory (NPL) occupies a unique position as the UK's National Measurement Institute and sits at the intersection between scientific discovery and real world application. Its expertise and original research have underpinned quality of life, innovation and competitiveness for UK citizens and business for more than a century:

  • NPL provides companies with access to world-leading support and technical expertise, inspiring the absolute confidence required to realise competitive advantage from new materials, techniques and technologies;
  • NPL expertise and services are crucial in a wide range of social applications - helping to save lives, protect the environment and enable citizens to feel safe and secure. Support in areas such as the development of advanced medical treatments and environmental monitoring helps secure a better quality of life for all;
  • NPL develops and maintains the nation’s primary measurement standards, supporting an infrastructure of traceable measurement throughout the UK and the world, to ensure accuracy and consistency.

NPL has extensive experience in measurement uncertainty evaluation across all areas of physics, and uses FE simulation for equipment design and to support interpretation of measurement data in a wide variety of fields.

Events - Cancellation Policy

Please note NAFEMS cancellation policy for all UK events is as follows:-

  • Cancellation up to 3 weeks before the event date: free of charge;
  • Cancellation up to 1 week before the event date: 75% of registration fee non-refundable;
  • Cancellation up to 1 week before the event date: all seminar credits non-refundable;
  • No show at the event: 100% of registration fee non-refundable;

NAFEMS will discuss the possibility of transferring to an alternative event/course, however an administration charge will be applicable.

This policy is subject to change.