Activities and Factors Essential to the Endorsement of Confidence in Numerical Simulation and Predictions *

This presentation was made at the 2019 NAFEMS World Congress in Quebec Canada

Resource Abstract

The rapid development of design analysis tools and methods such as the finite element method, computational fluid dynamics, and multi-body systems, during recent decades has fundamentally changed the way in which products are nowadays designed and developed. This comes, obviously, with challenges such as increasing demands and constraints in planning, executing, controlling and monitoring of design analysis activities as well as in documenting and communicating the results obtained. Furthermore, the circumstances in which the design analysis activities are performed in an actual industrial setting are bounded by factors influencing the design analysis activities and their results. The understanding of uncertainties connected with these factors is important for providing insights to establish confidence in the decisions following the design analysis activity outcome. Moreover, in situations where design analysis is to replace more traditional validation and certification methods as well as being applied in new digital areas, an even greater confidence in the design analysis process and its results is required.

The presentation will discuss around activities and factors essential to the attainment of the increased confidence and the developed Predictive Design Analysis (PDA) methodology that facilitates, at an operational level, the increased confidence will be elaborated on. The PDA methodology is built upon three originally developed constitutive parts:

The Generic Design Analysis (GDA) process model that provides, at an operational level, an overall approach to planning and execution of design analysis activities as well as for monitoring, communicating and incorporating the obtained findings into the engineering design project.

Factors (endogenous and exogenous) influencing the design analysis activity emanating from the environment in which the design analysis activity is originated and executed and the

Confidence Appraisal Activities (CAAs) that provides a foundation for ascertaining the confidence level in the decisions and predictions made when performing a design analysis activity.

The PDA methodology can be successfully adapted to accommodate efficiently and effectively design analysis activities execution in different contexts. The access to such adaptions can also be used as a powerful planning tool as well as it provides the means for supervision and control of design analysis activities. Adhering to the methodology will furthermore give stakeholders insight into what can be expected and what will be required to achieve a given confidence level in prediction. The understanding of confidence level assessment is a vital cornerstone in (and necessity for) assuring endorsement from management to invest in resources and expert knowledge facilitating a continuing extended use of design analysis in an industrial setting.

Document Details

AuthorEriksson. M
Date 18th June 2019
OrganisationValidus Engineering


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