Uncertainty Quantification - How To Be More Robust In Decision Making

Stochastics Community Event


The world is evolving in ever faster cycles. Economic crisis, global environmental change, the COVID-19 pandemic, are just exemplary symptoms of the growing magnitude of uncertainty around us. How can we build products and processes which are robust and resilient to these effects?

In this discussion session members of the Stochastics Working Group talk about how Uncertainty Quantification is key to successful risk mitigation and management. During the discussion the panel cover the following questions:

  1. How did you start the application of UQ in your company?
  2. What are obstacles in applying UQ?
  3. What competencies, tools and methods are required for UQ?
  4. How is the regulatory aspect affecting the UQ activities?


About This Event

This event was hosted by the NAFEMS Stochatics Working Group (SWG). The SWG has formed an online Community to help disseminate best practice and encourage the application of stochastic methods. For more information and to get involved go to the Stochastics Community webpage.

The Presenters

Alexander Karl, Stochastics Working Group Chair. Alexander Karl holds a PhD and MSc in Aerospace technology from the University of Stuttgart in Germany. He has 21+ years of work experience with Rolls-Royce. During this period, Alexander was working in several major sites and sectors (Dahlewitz, Derby and Indianapolis). Alexander’s background is thermo-mechanical analysis but for the last 18+ years Alexander has been working actively in the area of multi-disciplinary optimization, Robust Design (Design for Six Sigma) and Systems Engineering. His main focus is the application of these tools, methods and processes to real engineering challenges.

Alexander’s current focus within Rolls-Royce is the global pervasive implementation of Robust Design within the company. Alexander is an Associate Fellow for Robust Design and Systems Engineering and a Master BlackBelt within Rolls-Royce. He is also an active member of NAFEMS and ERCOFTAC promoting a wider application of these methods, processes and tools.

Louise Wright, National Physical Laboratory (NPL)Louise Wright is the Head of Science for Data Science at the National Physical Laboratory, the UK’s national measurement institute. Following an MA in Mathematics and an MSc in Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Analysis, she spent four years working with FE and CFD in industry before joining NPL in 1999. Louise’s work uses FE and similar methods to support experimental design, interpretation of measurement results, and solution of industrial problems. She is interested in improving confidence in use of FE results in decision-making processes and works on uncertainty evaluation applied to finite element models.

Dietmar Vogt, Airbus. Dietmar Vogt is the Airbus Enterprise IT-Architect for the Physical Aircraft PLM toolset. He has more than 17+ years of work experience with Airbus mainly in the CTO central R&T and IT organization. Dietmar holds a PhD and Diploma degree in Mechanical Engineering from Hamburg University of Technology in Germany. He has a strong background in highly non-linear FE and is a specialist for modelling and simulation technology. As a Design for Six Sigma Black Belt Dietmar introduced multi-disciplinary Robust Design as well as stochastic simulation methods in multiple aircraft programs. He holds several patents on visualisation of stochastic simulation results. Dietmar's current focus within Airbus is the strategic development of the PLM IT-Architecture towards end-to-end digital continuity and to enable digital twins incorporating Uncertainty Quantification.

Jack ReijmersJack Reijmers is a retired naval architect. He graduated from the Delft University of Technology in 1982 and started his career at Nevesbu B.V. in The Netherlands. In the 1980s Jack's activities comprised naval projects with a special focus on submarines, such as the Walrus and Sea dragon class. In the 1990s, his activities shifted to offshore engineering, with strong involvement in submarine engineering (the Moray class). In the early 2000s Jack worked for seven and a half years as a consultant for Navantia at the Cartagena Shipyard in Spain, assisting in submarine engineering. In 2015 Jack joined the Stochastics Working Group, and at the World Congress 2019 in Quebec he was awarded the status of NAFEMS Technical Fellow. Although retired, Jack is still active, not in the least by a PhD study on pressure hull analysis on a reliability basis.

Fabio Santandrea, Research Institutes of Sweden (RISE). Fabio is a computational physicist working at the Department of Applied Mechanics of RISE in Gothenburg, Sweden. He holds a PhD in Physics from the University of Gothenburg, where he conducted research on numerical modelling of carbon-based nano-electromechanical systems (NEMS). Between 2011 and 2015, Fabio worked as a consultant in numerical simulations for industrial R&D projects in the automotive and energy sectors, specializing in Finite Element Analysis for static and dynamic structural and electromagnetic problems, and dynamical systems modelling. In 2016, Fabio started his employment at RISE as a researcher, alternating industrial assignments with research projects on simulation governance and standardization, uncertainty quantification and Life Cycle Assessment. He is a member of NAFEMS Stochastics Working Group and NAFEMS Nordic Steering Committee.

Gavin Jones, SmartUQ. With an aerospace background, Gavin is a key contributor to SmartUQ’s industrial uncertainty quantification initiative. He has given uncertainty quantification presentations at conferences including the NAFEMS World Congress and the NDIA Systems and Mission Engineering Conference. He has given trainings and tutorials covering uncertainty quantification at a number of conferences including AIAA SciTech, DATAWorks, the NAFEMS World Congress, and NAFEMS CAASE. Previously, Gavin held a lead role in SmartUQ’s Probabilistic Analysis Consortium for Engines project under contract with AFRL. He serves on committees including the Engineering Residual Stress Implementation Risk and UQ Committee and the AIAA Digital Engineering Integration Committee (DEIC) Digital Twin Sub-committee.



Document Details

AuthorsJones. G Karl. A Reijmers. J Santandrea. F Vogt. D Wright. L.
AudiencesManager Analyst Student
Date 21st January 2021
OrganisationsSmartUQ Rolls-Royce NAFEMS Technical Fellows Airbus National Physical Laboratory


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