This challenge problem is focused on the consideration of epistemic uncertainties. An irreducible uncertainty (aleatory uncertainty) is an inherent variation associated with the physical system being modeled which is characterized by probability distributions. Reducible uncertainty (epistemic uncertainty) is the lack of certitude in a measured or calculated value that can be reduced by gathering more data, observations, or information. Reducible uncertainty is typically addressed by attempting to include conservative assumptions in the formulation of the uncertainties. Reducible uncertainty is also called ‘lack of knowledge uncertainty’.
|NAFEMS Stochastics Working Group
|5th April 2022
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